Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
